The Right Races I remember when I was in my teens and a group of mates would go to Royal Randwick on a Saturday afternoon, or Harold Park Paceway on a Friday, it was what we did. Somedays you would win, others you would lose, however one prerequisite was that you had to bet in every race, because that is what we did. Well, following a dreadful losing sequence, I decided to become more selective. I would look for an hour at some races and still not narrow the serious winning chances down to less than five or six, then it suddenly dawned on me. Why do I have to bet in this race? No one is forcing me to bet in every race. In fact it is merely peer pressure to have a bet in every race. Money can be saved by not betting in some races. So over time, it became pretty obvious on which races to invest, and which races to avoid. Here are some simple tips on how to go about this. 1 Avoid races run on rain afected tracks 2 Avoid races with big fields where there are multiple winning chances 3 Avoid all apprentices only races 4 Avoid jumps races 5 Avoid races with more than three last start winners engaged 6 Avoid races with three or more first starters engaged 7 Avoid races where no horse placed at their most recent start Now that is a great start for any punter and should remove well over 50% of possible betting races, and it will save you valuable time to spend doing the form on races where a winner can be far more easily found. If you are unsure of what are the right races in which to invest, look at the opposite of the seven points above. For example, look for races on firm rated tracks, look for races in smaller sized fields, look for races where there is exposed form to analyse. Not only is it sensible not to bet in every race, you avoid tricky affairs that can spring surprise results.
Favourites, To Play Or Not To Play? Have you heard a race commentator or tipster say “Oh, the outsider gets up in a small field agan!” Or “I think the favourite will win but I can’t back it at the price, he is too short for me, I’ll go for value and have something on the $15 chance” Yes, we have all heard it many times. But is it true? FACT 1 Favourites win around 32% of all horse races in Australia FACT 2 Second favourtes in around 24% of all races in Australia FACT 3 The average field size in races in Australia is around 12.5 runners These are irrefutable statistics which have maintained there winning strike rate over decades of racing, they change little. So let’s analyse this situation. If in a field of say 16 runners, the first or second favourite will win around 56% of the time. Unfortunately, in the 44% of cases the others runners will win, you have 14 horses from which to choose. not any easy task. FACT 4 As field sizes decrease, the winning percentages of favourites and second favourites increase So when we get down to a field of 10, a favourte will win around 36% of the time. And when we move to fields of six runners or less, the favourte will win 42% of the time and around 60% of the time in fields of four or less. We are getting to some really valuable statistics now. If you knew you could nail a race 42% of the time (fields of six or less), you could certainly make a profit out of that knowledge simply by filtering out the odd false favourite or two, could we not? The point with this article is, please do not believe everyhting that is said on radio or television or in print media. Most have vested interests in trying to get you to place a bet. Use your own knowledge, and the time honoured statistics we have provided to you here for free, with no vested interest. Favourites can win, and punters should be playing on the right one.
Barriers, Do They Have An Impact A wise man once said “There is only one good barrier, and then they progressively get worse” A saying on which many a punting strategy was built. However well into the 21st century, we see many pundits, alleged experts, and analysts completely ignoring the barrier draw and openly tipping punters horses drawn double figure barriers n big fields with monotonous regularity. Wide barriers are frought with danger. If the horse is normally an on pace runner, then it will have to work hard early to get across therefore having its work cut out for him to maintain that speed over the final 200m If the horse is a back marker, then the horse goes back and will ned plenty of luck to win, lots of pace on, another horse to cart it into the race, clear running when needed. If the horse is neutral, neither on pace nor back marker, then the horse is wide, possibly without cover the entire trip, giving it little or no winning chance. The only time a horse will win when drawn wide, is if it gets everything go its way with plenty of luck, or, it is simply lengths better than its opponents. In saying all of this, get back runners are always risky betting propositions, whether drawn wide or inside, we will address this in another article, however worth considerng here. On pace or midfield runners are generally benefitted from an inside draw. They will usually get into a reasonable position in the run then be ready to pounce n the straight. FACT On pace or just off pace runners win over 60% of races Therefore, an inside draw will significantly advantage these on pace or sit handy horses. Be careful with barriers, especially in field sizes over 12, double figure barriers are fraught with danger.
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