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The Right Races
I remember when I was in my teens and a group of
mates would go to Royal Randwick on a Saturday
afternoon, or Harold Park Paceway on a Friday, it was
what we did. Somedays you would win, others you
would lose, however one prerequisite was that you
had to bet in every race, because that is what we did.
Well, following a dreadful losing sequence, I decided
to become more selective. I would look for an hour at
some races and still not narrow the serious winning
chances down to less than five or six, then it suddenly
dawned on me. Why do I have to bet in this race? No
one is forcing me to bet in every race. In fact it is
merely peer pressure to have a bet in every race.
Money can be saved by not betting in some races.
So over time, it became pretty obvious on which races
to invest, and which races to avoid. Here are some
simple tips on how to go about this.
1 Avoid races run on rain afected tracks
2 Avoid races with big fields where there are
mumtiple winning chances
3 Avoid all apprentices only races
4 Avoid jumps races
5 Avoid races with more than three last start winners
engaged
6 Avoid races with three or more first starters
engaged
7 Avoid races where no horse placed at their most
recent start
Now that is a great start for any punter and should
remove well over 50% of possible betting races, and it
will save you valuable time to spend doing the form
on races where a winner can be far more easily found.
If you are unsure of what are the right races in which
to invest, look at the opposite of the seven points
above. For example, look for races on firm rated
tracks, look for races in smaller sized fields, look for
races where there is exposed form to analyse.
Not only is it sensible not to bet in every race, you
avoid tricky affairs that can spring surprise results.
Favourites, To Play Or Not To Play?
Have you heard a race commentator or tipster
say
“Oh, the outsider gets up in a small field agan!”
Or
“I think the favourite will win but I can’t back it at
the price, he is too short for me, I’ll go for value
and have something on the $15 chance”
Yes, we have all heard it many times. But is it
true?
FACT 1
Favourites win around 32% of all horse
races in Australia
FACT 2
Second favourtes in around 24% of all
races in Australia
FACT 3
The average field size in races in Australia
is around 12.5 runners
These are irrefutable statistics which have
maintained there winning strike rate over
decades of racing, they change little.
So let’s analyse this situation. If in a field of say
16 runners, the first or second favourite will win
around 56% of the time. Unfortunately, in the
44% of cases the others runners will win, you
have 14 horses from which to choose. not any
easy task.
FACT 4
As field sizes decrease, the winning
percentages of favourites and second
favourites increase
So when we get down to a field of 10, a favourte
will win around 36% of the time. And when we
move to fields of six runners or less, the favourte
will win 42% of the time and around 60% of the
time in fields of four or less.
We are getting to some really valuable statistics
now. If you knew you could nail a race 42% of
the time (fields of six or less), you could certainly
make a profit out of that knowledge simply by
filtering out the odd false favourite or two, could
we not?
The point with this article is, please do not
believe everyhting that is said on radio or
television or in print media. Most have vested
interests in trying to get you to place a bet.
Use your own knowledge, and the time honoured
statistics we have provided to you here for free,
with no vested interest.
Favourites can win, and punters should be
playing on the right one.
Barriers, Do They Have An Impact
A wise man once said
“There is only one good barrier, and then they
progressively get worse”
A saying on which many a punting strategy was built.
However well into the 21st century, we see many
pundits, alleged experts, and analysts completely
ignoring the barrier draw and openly tipping punters
horses drawn double figure barriers n big fields with
monotonous regularity.
Wide barriers are frought with danger.
If the horse is normally an on pace runner, then it
will have to work hard early to get across therefore
having its work cut out for him to maintain that
speed over the final 200m
If the horse is a back marker, then the horse goes
back and will ned plenty of luck to win, lots of pace
on, another horse to cart it into the race, clear
running when needed.
If the horse is neutral, neither on pace nor back
marker, then the horse is wide, possibly without
cover the entire trip, giving it little or no winning
chance.
The only time a horse will win when drawn wide, is if
it gets everything go its way with plenty of luck, or,
it is simply lengths better than its opponents.
In saying all of this, get back runners are always risky
betting propositions, whether drawn wide or inside,
we will address this in another article, however worth
considerng here.
On pace or midfield runners are generally benefitted
from an inside draw. They will usually get into a
reasonable position in the run then be ready to
pounce n the straight.
FACT
On pace or just off pace runners win over 60%
of races
Therefore, an inside draw will significantly advantage
these on pace or sit handy horses.
Be careful with barriers, especially in field sizes over
12, double figure barriers are fraught with danger.
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